Hey Stephen, promote, promote, promote away!! Like Zach above I don’t do that abomination Twitter and I really miss your newsletters. As the boys on “Cash Considerations” said you’re the best writer on the Bulls and it’s not even close. I’d happily pay money to subscribe to your work again, and you’re the only sportswriter I’d be interested in paying.
Great article as usual. Seems as though the Bulls are really in a hole. This team is bound for mediocrity. It’s not that our “big” 3 aren’t good players. They are, but with deep flaws, and can’t play together. I agree they should def resign Vooch. Any counter argument is stupid, but I feel strongly they should break this whole thing up while there’s still value on them and Zach’s knee is holding up. I love Zach. Seems like a really good guy, a hard worker, and loyal to the organization. He’s a great shooter, but unfortunately he doesn’t seem like the smartest tool in the box, especially at the end of games (and his defense is a lot to be desired for a 2 guard with his athleticism....see my first point!). However if there’s any chance at the 3rd pick with say Caruso as they want 2 way players, the pick they owe us, and whatever else they want for Scoot, I’d do it. I love Demarr too. Great player and mentor, but he doesn’t shoot 3’s and isn’t a great defender either. Together with Vooch, that’s your 3 “best” players who aren’t really solid defenders. We have no draft picks for trades, and the packages you propose, I’m sure you’re not that excited about either. It’s time to pull the plug
Re-sign Vucevic. No to Wood, Bulls don't need a bad attitude (if that's true) or a so-so defender. Reid may have subbed for Kat but they still had Rudy. As far as Reid's 3pt shooting, having a center whose value is determined by him taking more shots, especially in the Bulls offense is not the way to go.
Better to reconfigure the offense to get Vucevic better looks in the post. The Bulls need at point guard is more pressing. If the Bulls can add a quality floor general that can take over organizing and distributing the ball and get better looks for Vucevic, DeRozan and Lavine, then the money on Vucevic is well spent.
Just because Naz Reid doesn't score as many pointzzz as Vucevic doesn't mean he's as good. Reid HASN'T been as good, but he's barely behind Vuc. Check out most (not all) advanced metrics, and you'll see it's pretty close.
When you throw in two facts, it almost seems stupid to give Vuc 20million per year and not go after Reid for $12.
1) Reid is 9 years younger than Vucevic. He has improved every season he's been in the league, and it's hard for me to see an argument that he wouldn't even get better over the life of the contract while it seems very likely that Vucevic will be decline. He played 82 games because it was a contract year. That won't happen again.
2) Reid has yet to be a full-time starter at center where he's seen as an integral part to the team. He's mostly been a spot-up 3 point shooter and rim finisher and put-back guy. Give him more of a focus and continuity with centers, and he'll be better.
He's better and defense than Vucevic, and that's more important for a center. I don't put this as a fact, but it really should be.
He's short 2 more 3s per 36 than Vucevic at the same clip. I think there's room to get him to 7-8 3FGAs per 36 with a more concerted effort. At the same 35% rate, that's 3-4 more, which the Bulls desperately need.
You could spend $60 million (3 years) on a 33-35 year old Vucevic, or you could spend $50 million (4 years) on a 24-27 Reid. Doesn't seem like a trap at all to me.
And yes, I'd rather let Vucevic walk for nothing than keep him around. I don't buy into the sunk cost fallacy. If they keep Vucevic, they'll be bad for the next 3 years while limiting what they can do.
Just to reiterate, I ask you to show your work that Reid would likely be a bottom 3 starting center (fringe, as you say) and Vucevic would remain a Top 12-15 center over the life of the their contracts. Because they shouldn't be paying him for what they did, but what you project they'll do.
I 100 percent don't believe they should keep Vooch becuase of optics, or what they gave up for him. I agree that is very stupid logic.
Reid was good subbing in for KAT during the regular season. He's a high skill big that can shoot a bit, like you say. He had such a huge leap in his game this season, I honestly don't really have a great grasp of how to project him going forward. He's an okay option but I would be nervous that he is a bit unproven. You're right that I probably should not have been so dismissive of him as a Vooch replacement though.
Yeah, I guess I’d rather just trust the stats and the progress and the Paul Millsap doctrine or whatever. With Vuc, I feel like you know what you’re going to get (and I think you’re probably overrating that a bit). Contract year, 82-game Vuc probably goes hand-in-hand. If I’m projecting, im putting this year as an outlier and not as a new benchmark. I also think that that difference between a 15th ranked Vucevic and a 25th ranked center is a lot smaller than a Top 5 center and a number 15 center. True 2-way centers are still valuable, but simply “good” centers aren’t that much better than just an average one.
I guess I (sorta of) agree with your skepticism that Reid can be a legitimately good center (though I’m more confident in it), but I’m far more confident in Vucevic being an average center moving to mediocre over the life of the contract. That’s why I’m in favor of just moving in from Vuc even with the uncertainty of getting Reid. Even if go with a bad center and Andre drummond, how many games will that really cost the Bulls? 2? 3? 4 at the most? Is that worth locking yourself into mediocrity? Not to me.
Please promote your work here as often as you wish. As I'm no longer on twitter, this is really the only way I can follow your writing
Hey Stephen, promote, promote, promote away!! Like Zach above I don’t do that abomination Twitter and I really miss your newsletters. As the boys on “Cash Considerations” said you’re the best writer on the Bulls and it’s not even close. I’d happily pay money to subscribe to your work again, and you’re the only sportswriter I’d be interested in paying.
Great article as usual. Seems as though the Bulls are really in a hole. This team is bound for mediocrity. It’s not that our “big” 3 aren’t good players. They are, but with deep flaws, and can’t play together. I agree they should def resign Vooch. Any counter argument is stupid, but I feel strongly they should break this whole thing up while there’s still value on them and Zach’s knee is holding up. I love Zach. Seems like a really good guy, a hard worker, and loyal to the organization. He’s a great shooter, but unfortunately he doesn’t seem like the smartest tool in the box, especially at the end of games (and his defense is a lot to be desired for a 2 guard with his athleticism....see my first point!). However if there’s any chance at the 3rd pick with say Caruso as they want 2 way players, the pick they owe us, and whatever else they want for Scoot, I’d do it. I love Demarr too. Great player and mentor, but he doesn’t shoot 3’s and isn’t a great defender either. Together with Vooch, that’s your 3 “best” players who aren’t really solid defenders. We have no draft picks for trades, and the packages you propose, I’m sure you’re not that excited about either. It’s time to pull the plug
Yep, unfortunately I don't think the Bulls will do it.
Re-sign Vucevic. No to Wood, Bulls don't need a bad attitude (if that's true) or a so-so defender. Reid may have subbed for Kat but they still had Rudy. As far as Reid's 3pt shooting, having a center whose value is determined by him taking more shots, especially in the Bulls offense is not the way to go.
Better to reconfigure the offense to get Vucevic better looks in the post. The Bulls need at point guard is more pressing. If the Bulls can add a quality floor general that can take over organizing and distributing the ball and get better looks for Vucevic, DeRozan and Lavine, then the money on Vucevic is well spent.
Yeap! Same old, same older!!
Just because Naz Reid doesn't score as many pointzzz as Vucevic doesn't mean he's as good. Reid HASN'T been as good, but he's barely behind Vuc. Check out most (not all) advanced metrics, and you'll see it's pretty close.
When you throw in two facts, it almost seems stupid to give Vuc 20million per year and not go after Reid for $12.
1) Reid is 9 years younger than Vucevic. He has improved every season he's been in the league, and it's hard for me to see an argument that he wouldn't even get better over the life of the contract while it seems very likely that Vucevic will be decline. He played 82 games because it was a contract year. That won't happen again.
2) Reid has yet to be a full-time starter at center where he's seen as an integral part to the team. He's mostly been a spot-up 3 point shooter and rim finisher and put-back guy. Give him more of a focus and continuity with centers, and he'll be better.
He's better and defense than Vucevic, and that's more important for a center. I don't put this as a fact, but it really should be.
He's short 2 more 3s per 36 than Vucevic at the same clip. I think there's room to get him to 7-8 3FGAs per 36 with a more concerted effort. At the same 35% rate, that's 3-4 more, which the Bulls desperately need.
You could spend $60 million (3 years) on a 33-35 year old Vucevic, or you could spend $50 million (4 years) on a 24-27 Reid. Doesn't seem like a trap at all to me.
And yes, I'd rather let Vucevic walk for nothing than keep him around. I don't buy into the sunk cost fallacy. If they keep Vucevic, they'll be bad for the next 3 years while limiting what they can do.
Just to reiterate, I ask you to show your work that Reid would likely be a bottom 3 starting center (fringe, as you say) and Vucevic would remain a Top 12-15 center over the life of the their contracts. Because they shouldn't be paying him for what they did, but what you project they'll do.
I 100 percent don't believe they should keep Vooch becuase of optics, or what they gave up for him. I agree that is very stupid logic.
Reid was good subbing in for KAT during the regular season. He's a high skill big that can shoot a bit, like you say. He had such a huge leap in his game this season, I honestly don't really have a great grasp of how to project him going forward. He's an okay option but I would be nervous that he is a bit unproven. You're right that I probably should not have been so dismissive of him as a Vooch replacement though.
Yeah, I guess I’d rather just trust the stats and the progress and the Paul Millsap doctrine or whatever. With Vuc, I feel like you know what you’re going to get (and I think you’re probably overrating that a bit). Contract year, 82-game Vuc probably goes hand-in-hand. If I’m projecting, im putting this year as an outlier and not as a new benchmark. I also think that that difference between a 15th ranked Vucevic and a 25th ranked center is a lot smaller than a Top 5 center and a number 15 center. True 2-way centers are still valuable, but simply “good” centers aren’t that much better than just an average one.
I guess I (sorta of) agree with your skepticism that Reid can be a legitimately good center (though I’m more confident in it), but I’m far more confident in Vucevic being an average center moving to mediocre over the life of the contract. That’s why I’m in favor of just moving in from Vuc even with the uncertainty of getting Reid. Even if go with a bad center and Andre drummond, how many games will that really cost the Bulls? 2? 3? 4 at the most? Is that worth locking yourself into mediocrity? Not to me.