The old Bulls regime was playing not to lose. This one is playing to win.
Some quick thoughts on recent moves from the Karnisovas regime
Here’s a little inside baseball for all of you: Most NBA writers absolutely loathe covering the draft. We all have a little bit of imposter syndrome, and at no other time does it rear its ugly head more than when we are asked by our editors to cram for draft season.
It is with great relief then that I can freely admit that like most of you reading this, I don’t know if Patrick Williams will be any good. If you’re looking for a comprehensive take on the pick, this isn’t the place (check this video out instead). But what I do know is that the Williams pick and the fringe moves that the Bulls have made in the week leading up to the draft reveal quite a bit about what the Karnisovas era is going to look like.
The Bulls under Karnisovas have been nothing if not unpredictable. The timing of firing coach Jim Boylen and hiring Marc Eversley as general manager caught everyone off guard. Nobody thought that he was going to pick up coach Billy Donovan. The decision to let Kris Dunn walk in free agency came as a mild surprise, and extending Denzel Valentine a qualifying offer along with opting not to offer one to Shaquille Harrison was even more questionable. Those moves were met with mild criticism among those interested in such minutiae.
The Patrick Williams pick adds another data point to the clear trendline that we’re seeing with all of these decisions. Karnisovas has spent a lifetime waiting for this opportunity, and he’s not going to be afraid to implement his vision of acquiring high-skill two-way players even if it puts him under the magnifying glass in doing so.
Not caring what other people think of you is potentially a gigantic asset for decision makers and a significant upgrade from the make it one day longer philosophy of Gar Forman and John Paxson. Way too many coaches and execs are driven by a fear of failure, and while that philosophy can blow up in your face if you truly don’t know what you’re doing (see: Jim Boylen), breaking away from groupthink can also be extremely powerful (see: Nick Nurse). And personally, I’ve always believed that it’s a lot better to go out on your own terms rather than playing not to lose.
The Williams pick was definitely a reach. Although the speculation started getting serious shortly before the draft that he would go at 4, he was ranked somewhere in the 10 to 13 range according to consensus board rankings in the weeks leading up to the draft.
Karnisovas did hint that this was going to be his process when he first learned that the team had moved up in the lottery.
“By the time the draft comes, we’ll have our draft board and a lot of opinions. Then minimize the noise and pick the player that’s best available on the board,” Karnisovas explained on a conference call back in August.
Going against consensus on such a high pick is obviously risky and has caused a lot of consternation within the Bulls’ fanbase, but it reinforces that philosophy of Karnisovas doing what he believes in rather than taking the safe path forward.
Karnisovas’ approach is particularly interesting in that it is antithetical to the GarPax strategy. Despite being considered somewhat strong drafters, they generally took whoever ESPN’s chryon said was the best player still available with the exception of reaching for Tony Snell at no. 20 in 2013 and making a promise to Chandler Hutchison at 22 in 2018.
The fanbase was asking for change when they revolted against that management team, and it’s probably fair to let Karnisovas’ anti-GarPax process play out before forming any strong opinions on how good or bad this pick was.
This is also a pretty strong indicator to me that the changes to the roster aren’t done. Karnisovas’ vision, of two-way players with high feel, does not exactly describe most of the guys currently on the roster. There is a prevailing thought that the Bulls are short on roster spots and cap space, and so they won’t do much. While technically true, you could very easily lop off the bottom half of last year’s team and not miss a beat. There are ways to get moves done with a tiny bit of elbow grease, and I don’t think that this is a front office that will pursue the easy path over the most prudent one any longer.
Karnisovas’ early strikes have all been in line with a guy who is pretty eager to mold this team to his vision as quickly and aggressively as possible. Maybe it will work out, maybe it won’t. But we know for sure that the old way wasn’t cutting it. We will see if he’s a genius or a fool, and this time we probably won’t have to wait 17 years to find out.
Top Photo: Jacob Gralton